International Relations
Gholamali Cheganizadeh; Saeed Shokoohi
Abstract
Introduction The way decision-makers perceive events is just as important, and potentially even more ...
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Introduction The way decision-makers perceive events is just as important, and potentially even more important, than the events themselves. Regardless of the actual situation and reality, decision-makers act based on their perception of what is happening. This underscores the crucial role that cognitive and mental factors play in shaping the behavior of actors. When analyzing international political issues, it is necessary to distinguish between the operational milieu and psychological milieu. This is especially important when major or acute issues of the international system are at play, and emotions, nationalism, or ideology come into play. Currently, during Joe Biden’s presidency, the relationship between China and the US is experiencing one of its worst periods, and rhetorical tensions between the two countries have escalated. In this context, the possibility of non-emotional dialogues and understanding significantly has decreased. Instead, both sides are arranging their policies and reactions based on their perceptions of each other’s intentions. Therefore, it is crucial to address the issue of perceptions and misperceptions between these two rival countries.Research QuestionsThis article aimed to analyze how Chinese elites perceive the intentions and policies of American officials towards Beijing. Understanding the perceptions of Chinese elites can shed light on their behavior and reactions to events in the international system for outside observers. For the purposes of this research, Chinese elites refer to influential groups in policymaking and public opinion, including policymakers, university professors, researchers, journalists, and businessmen. Specifically, this study explored Chinese elites’ perceptions of US intentions, Washington’s policies towards Taiwan and India, the rivalry between the two countries, and Beijing’s future role in the international order.Literature ReviewDespite the critical importance of understanding China’s perceptions and misperceptions of US policies and goals, there has been limited research conducted on the topic. Boullenois et al. (2018) published a report for the European Council on Foreign Relations, which studied the three distinct perceptions of Trump held by Chinese elites. Kennedy (2007) explored the US policies towards Taiwan and the perceptions of those policies among Chinese elites, while Sinkkonen and Elovainio (2020) surveyed the views of Chinese students and the educated class on the threats posed by America and Japan. Their findings indicated that students who consumed Chinese media for extended periods were more likely to be sympathetic to the media’s narrative of the enmity of Japan and America. In 2015, the Carnegie Institute published an analytical report titled “Perception and Misperception in American and Chinese Views of the Other” (Johnston & Shen, 2015), which analyzed Chinese people’s attitudes towards Americans and themselves, China’s role in international leadership, and the role of American parties in Chinese politics. Similar to the previous studies, the present research aimed to examine Chinese elites’ perceptions of the US policies and intentions and their impact on Beijing’s foreign policy. However, this study innovatively relied on authentic surveys and Chinese sources to extract and analyze the Chinese elites’ views about the US.MethodologyThis research employed the method of directed qualitative content analysis to extract and analyze Chinese elites’ perceptions of US policies and intentions towards Beijing. Directed qualitative content analysis is a deductive approach that begins by determining the variables and key concepts of the research based on a theoretical framework and existing literature. Then, the researcher collects, codes, and analyzes data related to these variables and concepts. In this study, the data related to the variables specified in the conceptual framework was collected from the Chinese elites’ views and interviews, as well as the review of the existing literature in the field. The collected date was then coded, decoded, and analyzed within the conceptual framework. Finally, the study went on to examine the effects of those perceptions on China–US relations. The variables were also categorized based on the items specified in the conceptual framework.ResultsThe research findings indicate that Chinese elites perceive the US as follows: 1) China’s main enemy, 2) China’s identity enemy, 3) China’s main rival in international leadership, 4) China’s main economic and technological competitor, and 5) the challenger to China’s regional power. According to the results, younger elites are less pessimistic than their older counterparts, while businessmen hold a more pessimistic outlook than political or academic elites. Discussion A crucial element in China–US relations is the perception that the window of strategic opportunity is closing. According to the analysis, Chinese decision-makers view the favorable foreign environment as a strategic opportunity for China’s growth. The US was preoccupied with issues in other regions and did not actively seek to curb China, which created a strategic opportunity for China. However, many Chinese strategists now believe that this strategic opportunity is diminishing, and China will face increased pressure going forward. This shift in the strategic environment is likely to alter Beijing’s calculations and approach. These factors have contributed to China’s more assertive and confrontational foreign policy towards the US inrecent years, while attempting to manage the confrontation and prevent it from spiraling out of control.ConclusionThe rigorous economic policies imposed by the US on China have led many Chinese experts to perceive that America is in decline while China is on the rise, and this trend cannot be halted in the long term. Additionally, China’s skepticism towards international norms and institutions dominated by the West, particularly the US, has grown. When these norms and institutions impinge on China’s critical interests, Beijing’s distrust and confrontational stance intensify.By observing the US policies, China concludes that the US easily uses international norms and institutions to advance its own interests and resorts to double standards. Deep pessimism towards international norms lies in the realistic view among many Chinese strategists that the international system is ultimately an anarchic system in which the most powerful actors determine the rules. What is important is the relative power of the country and its material capacities.Finally, some US policies have made Chinese elites worry that America may create more problems for China. For example, withdrawing from international agreements and institutions concerning climatic changes, free trade, and arms control has concerned China. Moreover, according to the Chinese, America ignores the trade problems of other countries and blames others for its own problems. Therefore, China considers America a troublesome country. This situation will not only reduce the economicinterdependence between the two countries in the long term, but also intensify the possibility of conflict between the two.
Gholamali Cheganizadeh; Hossein Mahmoudi
Abstract
As Bush get into power in 2001 and as the Conservative ruled his administration, the US administration's perception of the structure and nature of the international system and its dynamics was shaped by 9/11. These perceptions were theorized in the form of the Bush Doctrine, an inconsistent approach ...
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As Bush get into power in 2001 and as the Conservative ruled his administration, the US administration's perception of the structure and nature of the international system and its dynamics was shaped by 9/11. These perceptions were theorized in the form of the Bush Doctrine, an inconsistent approach to the nature and structure of the post-Cold War international system, which resulted at first in a military invasion of Afghanistan and the overthrow of the Taliban in 2001, and then a dramatic invasion of Iraq and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003. Under these circumstances, many thought that the next goal of the Bush administration is military action against the Islamic Republic of Iran, which has never been achieved. Relying on this inconsistency (intervening variable), this article addresses the issue of why the United States did not invade the Islamic Republic militarily after the Iraq war. This issue is examined in the strategic literature under the theory and strategy of deterrence. Accordingly, the hypothesis is that the increase in Iran's power and influence (independent variable) as the most important consequence of the Iraq war in US-Iranian relations led to the Bush administration preventing a military invasion of Iran (dependent variable). The finding of this study is to achieve a bifocal model of deterrence of Iran against US aggression.
ali esmaeiliardakani
Abstract
European Union crisis, especially (Greece, Ukraine, immigration and withdrawal of the Great Britain) cast light on the behavior and orientation of German foreign policy. Given the status of this country, it is expected that due to the economic and political growth of the country, it enjoys legitimacy ...
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European Union crisis, especially (Greece, Ukraine, immigration and withdrawal of the Great Britain) cast light on the behavior and orientation of German foreign policy. Given the status of this country, it is expected that due to the economic and political growth of the country, it enjoys legitimacy to gain more active role in international relations and even took the leadership role in European Union. On one hand, the great powers consider Germany as a de facto leader of the EU because it has the largest economy in the European Union and respect Angela Merkel as a powerful leader, but on the other hand there are doubts about matters of responsibility in this country’s foreign policy. There has been a question about ambiguity of German foreign policy toward EU for many years. This paper tries to study this ambiguity through two important issues of the EU which are: withdrawal of the Great Britain and the issue of immigration.
Gholam Ali Chegani Zadeh; Mohammad Reza Sahraei
Volume 4, Issue 14 , December 2015, , Pages 71-101
Abstract
In 2001, after the international intervention in Afghanistan and theconclusion of Bon Agreement, international peacebuilding efforts wereinitiated in order to prevent reoccurrences of internal war and to createpolitical, economic and social bases for durable peace in Afghanistan.Nevertheless, 14 years ...
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In 2001, after the international intervention in Afghanistan and theconclusion of Bon Agreement, international peacebuilding efforts wereinitiated in order to prevent reoccurrences of internal war and to createpolitical, economic and social bases for durable peace in Afghanistan.Nevertheless, 14 years after the conclusion of Bon Agreement, peacebuildingprocess faces many challenges. In this regard, in this research thesequestions have been answered: what are the challenges for peacebuildingefforts in Afghanistan and how these challenges could be overcome? Inorder to answer these question, the findings of the research show that flawswithin the Bon Agreement has a major role in failure of peacebuildingefforts and in order to advance the peacebuilding process it is necessary thatinternational objectives and approaches be redefined. In this matter, thechallenges facing peacebuilding process in Afghanistan have beenelaborated and explained. Meanwhile, new solutions which are necessary toovercome the challenges have been proposed
